That's the title of Charlie Cook's latest take on the outlook for the midterms (via the Stakeholder, which highlights an excellent example of how the CW has changed from a year ago). Cook argues that if the election were held today, whether or not the Democrats would win a majority in the House would be virtually within the margin of error:
The current model predicts a net Democratic gain of 10 seats. When we factor in a four-seat margin of error, the model projects that as of today, under current conditions, and without speculating about what the national political environment may do between now and November, Democrats will make a net gain of six to 14 seats. With a bit of luck -- or a wave of any size -- Democrats might even grasp their gold ring: 15 seats.
The question is whether the national environment becomes more or less favorable for Republicans in the next nine months. And, according to Cook, writing about Boehner's election in a separate article, the coming months aren't looking good:
Even a brief glance at the polls shows that congressional Republicans lag far below the approval numbers of even a president who is in a slump....The abuses by the Democratic House majorities of the early 1990s now pale in comparison. Boehner seems to understand that his election gives House Republicans one last chance.
The question is whether he and his colleagues take it.
With the Abramoff and Fitzgerald vultures circling, and Bush's ratings still in the tank, the GOP is being forced to fall back on keeping retirements to a minimum and hoping their cash advantage will pay off:
In the past few campaign cycles, the NRCC had enough money to go on the attack very early and very effectively. The danger for Republicans this time is that while the committee has much more money than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- $19 million at the end of 2005, compared with $15.7 million for the Democrats -- the GOP's resources might not be sufficient to douse all the anti-Republican fires that could erupt around the nation.
I like the wildfire metaphor. It turns out we may not need a "wave," but just a small breeze to fan the flames. And the more seats the we challenge, the drier the ground will be.
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